Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 terhadap Kinerja Nilai Ekspor Pertanian Indonesia

The coronavirus pandemic has put the world in a state of crisis, both a health crisis and an economic crisis. As a result of this virus, trade between countries is hampered, due to a lockdown (large-scale social restrictions) which results in slow economic growth. Export is one of the international trade activities carried out by Indonesia. The agricultural sector contributes 2.3% of Indonesia's total exports, however, the agricultural sector is a sector that has survived a crisis. Seeing the situation in 2020, which has seen the COVID-19 pandemic in the last few months, it is interesting to observe whether the global crisis caused by COVID-19 has made a significant change in the performance of the export value of Indonesian agricultural products. The data used are monthly data analyzed using multiple linear regression, with the dependent variable being the value of Indonesian agricultural exports, while the independent variables are national gross domestic income, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States dollar, the volume of Indonesian exports, the volume of Indonesian agricultural exports, and COVID -19 as a dummy variable. The result is, the variables that have a significant effect on the value of Indonesian agricultural exports are the volume of Indonesian exports and the volume of Indonesian agricultural exports, while other variables do not have a significant effect.Pandemi coronavirus menyebabkan dunia masuk dalam kondisi krisis baik krisis kesehatan maupun krisis ekonomi. Akibat dari virus ini perdagangan antar negara menjadi terhambat, sebab terjadi lockdown (pembatasan sosial berskala besar) yang mengakibatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi berjalan lambat. Ekspor merupakan salah satu kegiatan perdagangan internasional yang dilakukan oleh Indonesia. Sektor pertanian menyumbang 2,3% dari total ekspor Indonesia, namun sektor pertanian merupakan sektor yang mampu bertahan dalam keadaan krisis. Melihat keadaan tahun 2020 yang sedang terjadi pandemik Covid-19 dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, menarik untuk dicermati apakah krisis global yang disebabkan oleh Covid-19 membuat perubahan signifian dalam kinerja nilai ekspor hasil pertanian Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan dianalisis menggunakan regresi linier berganda, dengan variabel dependen adalah nilai ekspor pertanian Indonesia, sedangkan variabel independennya adalah pendapatan domestik bruto nasional, kurs nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat, volume ekspor Indonesia, volume ekspor pertanian Indonesia, dan COVID-19 sebagai variabel dummy. Hasilnya adalah, variabel yang berpengaruh nyata terhadap nilai ekspor pertanian Indonesia adalah volume ekspor Indonesia dan volume ekspor pertanian Indonesia, sedangkan variabel lainnya tidak berpengaruh sacara signifikan

Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model

Colombian coffee exports influence Indonesian coffee exports in the short term, so this study aims to forecast the export volume of Indonesian and Colombian coffee in the future. The study used time-series data from 2001 to 2021, further analyzed using the ARIMA model. Based on the projection, Indonesian coffee export is projected to increase with an average value of 1.14 percent and a potential increase of 1.79 percent. However, this result still needed to reach the desired value since the projected coffee export of Indonesia in 2025 only reached 429 172 tons, or lower than the export quantity of Colombian coffee in 2011. This finding indicated that Indonesian coffee export tended to increase stagnantly and was considered low compared to the increasing export of Colombian coffee.JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37, F17, Q13How to Cite:Zuhdi, F., Maulana A. S., & Rambe, K. R. (2023). Forecasting Export Volume of Indonesian and Colombian Coffee in the World Market using ARIMA Model. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i1.25456

Komoditi Unggulan Buah-Buahan Perbatasan Indonesia Timor Leste Kabupaten Timor Tengah Utara (Studi Kasus Desa Eban)

Horticultural commodities, especially fruits, can be a source of increasing income for farmers in West Miomaffo District. This study aims to determine the main commodity of fruit in Eban Village, West Miomaffo District. The implementation of this research is from June to September 2021. The number of samples of this research is 20. The method used in this research is descriptive quantitative analysis with the Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. The results showed that the potential fruit commodities in Eban Village were oranges, mangoes, avocados, and jackfruit. Oranges are the most superior fruit commodity in Eban Village with a weight value of 45.0%

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LOCAL FRUIT SELLING BUSINESSES IN THE SAENAM VILLAGE AND SALLU VILLAGE NORTH CENTRAL TIMOR

East Nusa Tenggara Province has land that tends to be dry, with several superior local fruit commodities such as oranges, mangoes, avocados, and jackfruit. One of the local fruit-producing centers in East Nusa Tenggara is North Central Timor (TTU) Regency. Most of the fruit needs in TTU Regency are supplied from West Miomaffo District, especially Saenam Village. Saenam Village produces 222 Kg of local fruit while Sallu Village is 345 Kg, but the sales volume value of Saenam Village is higher than Sallu Village with a difference of Rp. 1,000,000. Based on these conditions, this study focuses on the comparison of local fruit farming businesses in Saenam Village and Sallu Village. The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the sales volume, relative market share level, and business position of local fruit commodities by applying BCG analysis. The results showed that the fruit business in Saenam Village had a total sales volume in 2018 of IDR 2,151,313, 2019 of IDR 1,915,296, and 2020 of IDR 2,175,685. Meanwhile, Sallu Village has a total sales in 2018 of Rp 1,009,821, 2019 Rp 899,584, and 2020 Rp 887,281. The market growth rate and relative market share are calculated based on the total sales volume. The results of the BCG analysis show that Saenam Village is in the star quadrant, with a market growth rate of 1.31% and a relative market share level of 2.57. Sallu Village has a market growth rate of -15.25% and a relative market share rate of 0.4. This value explains that the fruit products of Sallu Village are in the dog quadrant. The strategy that needs to be carried out by farmers in Saenam Village is to expand fruit marketing. The strategy that can be applied by farmers in Sallu Village is to replace fruit gardens with vegetable gardens in order to increase income and use land more optimally

DAYA SAING EKSPOR PRODUK OLAHAN KAKAO INDONESIA DI NEGARA MALAYSIA PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19

Processed cocoa products were a source of foreign exchange for Indonesia both before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the pandemic. Malaysia is a neighboring country and Indonesia's strategic trading partner in cocoa and processed exports. This study analyzes export competitiveness and competitiveness factors of Indonesian processed cocoa products in Malaysia. This study uses annual time series data from 2005-2022. This research method uses descriptive quantitative analysis and gravity model analysis. The research results show that there has been a decline in the competitiveness of Indonesian processed cocoa products in Malaysia. The competitiveness of cocoa paste decreased by more than 50%. Domestic cocoa production, Malaysian GDP, and Indonesian GDP influence the value of Indonesian cocoa butter exports in Malaysia. Cocoa butter has shown an increase in export value during the Covid-19 pandemic. Malaysia's GDP and the COVID-19 pandemic have influenced the value of Indonesian cocoa paste exports to Malaysia. Cocoa paste has competitiveness both comparatively and competitively in the Malaysian market

Fiscal Decentralization and Farmer Empowerment in Indonesia-Timor Leste Border: A Case Study of Village Fund

Farmers in the border areas often face challenges due to a lack of facilities and sufficient infrastructure. As a nation that shares borders with several countries, the Indonesian government aims to facilitate economic growth in these areas. One viable approach to achieve this objective is through the effective allocation of village funds. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the factors influencing the empowerment of farmers in the Indonesia-Timor Leste border using village funds. Data were collected using a survey method from 325 household heads, who served as respondents. The collected data were analyzed using the Structure Equation Model-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS). The results showed that human, social and physical capital owned by farmers on the Indonesia-Timor Leste border had an indirect effect on the strength of empowerment programs funded through village funds. This indicated that apart from implementing policies, the community must also be involved in the planning and implementation of various programs. Furthermore, the central or regional government must play an active role during the designing stages as well as involve farmers and experts in the empowerment process in the Indonesia-Timor Leste border areas

INOVASI PENGEMBANGAN MEDIA PEMASARAN UMKM SUKAMAJU AJAOBAKI BERBASIS E-MARKETING PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19

Abstrak Fenomena pandemi Covid-19 memberikan dampak yang cukup besar pada aspek ekonomi cukup berpengaruh terhadap daya beli masyarakat karena dengan adanya pembatasan aktivitas masyarakat. Dampak ini dirasakan oleh para pelaku UMKM Kelompok UP2K Wanita Tani Suka Maju  cukup kesulitan dalam proses pemasaran hasil produk pertaniannya. Setelah adanya pandemi Covid-19 dan kebijakan pemerintah terkait pembatasan aktivitas masyarakat. Perlu adanya strategi dalam pengelolaan manajemen pemasaran yang baik sehingga dapat kembali memulihkan pendapatan UMKM Kelompok UP2K Wanita Tani Suka Maju. Dengan adanya pelaksanaan pengabdian oleh tim dari Universitas Timor dapat membantu memberikan pencerahan dan pengetahuan dalam upaya pengembangan UMKM Kelompok UP2K Wanita tani Suka Maju Desa Ajaobaki, Kecamatan Mollo Utara Kabupten Timor Tengah Selatan selama masa pandemi Covid-19 dan adanya pembatasan aktivitas masyarakat yakni melalui pertama, optimalisasi terget pasar (market place);kedua, optimalisasi manajemen produksi dan sistem pemasaran berbasis Elektronik (E-Marketing);ketiga, optimalisasi Peraturan Desa (PERDES) Ajaobaki sebagai produk hukum dalam upaya mendukung pengelolaan dan pengembangan potensi desa Ajaobaki sebagai salah satu desa wisata;keempat, optimalisasi partisipasi aktif masyarakat khususnya para pelaku UMKM untuk menyediakan bahan baku melalui proses budidaya atau bercocok tanam yang baik sesuai anjuran para ahli pertanian

DAMPAK COVID-19 TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN PASAR DAN DAYA SAING USAHATANI JERUK DI DESA MANUSASI KABUPATEN TTU

Usahatani buah jeruk di Desa Manusasi saat ini terkendala akibat dampak COVID-19. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui; 1) dampak COVID-19 terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan pasar; dan 2) daya saing usahatani buah jeruk. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah matriks Boston Consulting Group (BCG) dan Policy Analysis Matriks (PAM). Populasi penelitian ini sebanyak 150 petani buah jeruk. Sampel penelitian sebanyak 60 responden. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa tahun 2019 sebelum terjadinya COVID-19 usahatani buah jeruk berada pada kuadran IV (dog). Kuadran tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa buah jeruk memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan pasar dan pangsa pasar rendah. Sedangkan tahun 2020 usahatani buah jeruk mengalami perubahan pada kuadran I (Question Mark). Artinya usahatani buah jeruk memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan pasar tinggi dan pangsa pasar rendah. Hasil analisis PAM menunjukan pada saat pandemi COVID-19 sedang berlangsung, usahatani buah jeruk memiliki daya saing dikarena nilai RBP sebesar 0.12 dan RBSD sebesar 0.18. Kebijakan pemerintah dapat dilihat pada rasio analisis PAM yaitu nilai koefisien proteksi input nominal (KPIN) sebesar 0.47, koefisien proteksi output nominal (KPON) sebesar 0.17, koefisien proteksi efektif (KPE) sebesar 1.57, koefisien keuntungan (KK) sebesar 1.69, dan rasio subsidi produsen (RSP) sebesar 0.36. Selain itu, terdapat enam strategi pengembangan yakni; 1) memperluas arel usahatani; 2) memanfaatkan tenaga kera; 3) mempertahankan kualitas buah jeruk; 4) menjalin kerja sama; 5) memperluas pasar; dan 6) melakukan promosi. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian tersebut petani di Desa Manusasi harus terus mengembangkan buah jeruk terutama jeruk manis dan pemerintah perlu mengkaji Kembali kebijakan yang berlaku selama ini dan belum melindungi komoditas jeruk lainnya

Pengaruh Krisis terhadap Nilai Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional

Cocoa is one of the important commodities in the plantation industry which is marketed in international trade, one form of international trade is export. Indonesia's cocoa export destination countries are Malaysia, America, India, China, the Netherlands, Germany, and Australia. Export activities are usually influenced by the country's economic conditions, so that the global crises in 1998, 2008, 2011, and 2020 are thought to have affected Indonesia's cocoa exports. This study uses a gravity model approach to examine the impact of the crisis on cocoa export value. The variables used in this study are the value of Indonesia's cocoa exports (EXVAL) and GDP per capita (GDPCAP), the exchange rate of the destination country's currency against the US dollar (ER), and economic distance as the dependent variable. (ECODIST) and crisis (CRISIS) as the independent variable. The emergency variable is used as a dummy variable. The results of the analysis of the gravity regression model show that all independent variables are significantly based on the t-test with the coefficient values of GDPCAP, ER, ECODIST, and CRISIS of 2.10, 2.28, –0.71, and 0.28 with an R2 value of 82%. . The crisis variable has a positive effect on the value of Indonesia's cocoa exports, so that the crisis does not weaken the development of Indonesia's cocoa exports.Kakao merupakan salah satu komoditas penting dalam industri perkebunan yang dipasarkan dalam perdagangan internasional, salah satu bentuk perdagangan internasional adalah ekspor. Negara tujuan ekspor kakao Indonesia adalah Malaysia, Amerika, India, China, Belanda, Jerman dan Australia. Kegiatan ekspor biasanya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi perekonomian negara, sehingga krisis global pada tahun 1998, 2008, 2011, dan 2020 diduga mempengaruhi ekspor kakao Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model gravitasi untuk mengkaji dampak krisis terhadap nilai ekspor kakao. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah nilai ekspor kakao Indonesia (EXVAL) dan PDB per kapita (GDPCAP), nilai tukar mata uang negara tujuan terhadap dolar AS (ER), jarak ekonomi sebagai variabel dependen. (EKODIST) dan krisis (KRISIS) sebagai variabel bebas. Variabel darurat digunakan sebagai variabel dummy. Hasil analisis model regresi gravitasi menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel independen signifikan berdasarkan uji-t dengan nilai koefisien GDPCAP, ER, ECODIST dan CRISIS sebesar 2,10, 2,28, –0,71 dan 0,28 dengan nilai R2 sebesar 82%. Variabel krisis berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor kakao Indonesia, sehingga situasi krisis tidak melemahkan perkembangan ekspor kakao Indonesia